On the afternoon of March 5, the seminar “Power Development Plan VIII: Resolving Bottlenecks in Energy Development” concluded successfully, featuring prominent speakers and delegates from the power, energy, healthcare, and environmental sectors. The event was highly engaging, marked by valuable contributions aimed at refining Power Development Plan VIII to align with Vietnam’s current economic and energy development landscape
Delegates take a commemorative photo at the seminar
According to the draft National Power Development Plan for the 2021–2030 period with a vision to 2045 (Power Development Plan VIII), Vietnam has essentially exhausted its hydroelectric potential. Coal supply to power plants is also facing significant difficulties, with stockpiles at record lows, forcing the country to import coal for electricity generation. To ensure power supply through 2030, Vietnam is projected to import approximately 1.2 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 35.1 million tons of coal by 2025, with these figures rising to 8.5 million tons of LNG and 45 million tons of coal by 2030. These represent substantial challenges for ensuring the security of electricity supply.
Furthermore, the volume of gas supplied for power generation falls short of demand. Domestic fossil fuel resources—such as gas hydrates, shale gas, and coal-bed methane—remain in the potential assessment stage; there is currently insufficient data to evaluate the feasibility of their extraction and utilization within the planning period.
Thermal power generation has historically driven rapid economic growth in certain regions, helping to alleviate poverty in many areas. However, it brings significant downsides, specifically pollution from fine particulate matter and arsenic. Cancer rates in areas with high concentrations of power plants and industrial zones are rising, and the age of onset is rapidly shifting toward younger demographics. This situation has profound implications for Vietnam’s future and its economy.
With its extensive coastline and abundant wind and solar resources, Vietnam possesses immense potential for renewable energy development—a sector that has become a global trend among developed nations. A key foundation for the Power Development Plan VIII is Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW from the Politburo, which outlines Vietnam’s national energy development strategy through 2030 with a vision toward 2045. This resolution emphasizes not only ensuring an adequate energy supply but also honoring international commitments regarding climate change, CO2 emissions, and environmental pollution. Resolution 55 targets a renewable energy share of 40–45%, or potentially even 48%. In the history of Vietnam’s energy sector, this represents a development goal of a magnitude comparable to the expansion of coal-fired power over the past four decades.
Alongside the growth of renewable energy, private sector participation in electricity supply is greater than ever. Under Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), renewable energy accounts for $40 billion of the total $128 billion investment—representing less than 50% of the total—even though the plan targets a renewable energy share of up to 48%. Renewable energy investment requires substantial additional capital from non-state sources, as the majority of state funding remains allocated to coal-fired power and the power grid.
Speaking at the seminar, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huan—Chairman of Halcom Vietnam JSC and a member of the Advisory Council on Science, Education, and Environment under the Central Committee of the Vietnam Fatherland Front—noted that the success of Power Development Plan VII was largely due to private sector participation in the renewable energy sector. For instance, the target for solar power capacity by the end of 2020 under Power Development Plan VII was approximately 850 MW; in reality, thanks to private sector involvement and government incentive policies, the capacity reached nearly 17,000 MW by year-end. The scale of private sector resources is immense, making it entirely feasible to attract them. Notably, the appendix to Chapter 10 of Power Development Plan VIII indicates that if all registered projects were approved, the total capacity by 2030 could exceed targets by several times. Thus, there remains vast potential for renewable energy development and the utilization of private sector resources. Meanwhile, we still need to weigh the implications of coal imports and other pollution sources, as well as assess the environmental consequences of small-scale hydropower projects developed in recent years. Effective planning and policies to attract private investment require more than just the price-based incentives used previously; offering favorable rates without specific binding conditions risks disrupting the master plan, thereby complicating power sector operations and system regulation.
Regarding solar and wind energy, Resolution 55 emphasizes the encouragement of technological adoption. Technologies capable of round-the-clock solar power generation already exist globally. I personally visited Israel to study this and, by late 2019, planned to invite experts to pilot a thermal-based solar power system—which stores energy to enable 24-hour generation—similar to projects already implemented in the US and Canada. Such potential offers a way to attract greater private sector participation.
Furthermore, attracting private investment requires long-term policies; short-term measures do not allow sufficient time to formulate strategies or capital mobilization plans. Take wind power, for instance: the current incentive scheme expires on October 30 of this year, yet no pricing mechanism has been established for the period following that date. While some projects have been registered, no one dares to proceed with construction due to the immense risks involved—particularly given the high capital costs associated with wind power. Investing without knowing the future price creates significant risk for investors.
Furthermore, in addition to ensuring that planning is grounded in reality, we should adopt technology, implement long-term policies, and pursue on-site electricity consumption strategies. While the Ministry of Industry and Trade has previously proposed direct power sales, certain regions possess immense power generation potential; however, relying solely on feeding all generated electricity into the grid creates significant transmission challenges. Conversely, by prioritizing on-site consumption—particularly in major cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, as well as industrial clusters and other urban centers in the Central and Southern regions where generation occurs—we can substantially alleviate the burden of grid overloading. Opting for on-site sales rather than expanding grid capacity and transmission capabilities could lead to significant savings in investment costs.
Mr. Huan added that while Resolution 55 clearly addresses waste-to-energy processing, the concept of transforming waste into a resource receives less emphasis. Vietnam generates 35,000 tons of municipal waste daily—an amount that, if fully utilized, is equivalent to the output of a 1,000 MW power plant. Modern technologies can now neutralize toxic substances and incinerate various materials, such as tires and plastic bottles. Successfully processing this waste could yield 1,000 MW of electricity per day, thereby bolstering energy security. To foster development and attract investors, policies must be transparent. Regarding the Power Development Plan VIII, clear definitions for investors are required in Appendix 9.4. While Appendix 9.3 categorizes regions and provinces by the types of energy to be developed, the inclusion of specific offshore wind projects and the names of designated investors raises concerns among other potential investors. From a policy perspective, the legislative process requires careful consideration to build public consensus, attract long-term investment, and ensure fair, transparent policies for the future.
During the seminar, experts also addressed the issues of waste and environmental pollution caused by fossil fuels. There is a need for comprehensive assessments regarding how fossil fuels pollute the environment, their health impacts, residual effects, and water contamination. For operating plants, strict regulations and improvement measures must be implemented to minimize environmental pollution wherever severe contamination occurs. It is recommended that the PM2.5 fine particulate matter index be incorporated into Power Development Plan VIII, serving as a benchmark for evaluating environmental pollution and health impacts.
During the seminar, experts and scientists analyzed and proposed solutions to develop the energy sector in tandem with national economic growth, while also exploring renewable energy sources to ensure long-term, sustainable development.
It is hoped that these valuable insights will assist policymakers, administrators, and investors in making appropriate choices to implement the policies and directives of the Party and the State.
Source: Dai bieu Nhan dan Newspapper, Truyen hinh Nhan Dan