The goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, with a per capita income of over USD 13,000, will be a challenging journey for Vietnam. However, it will also serve as a driving force for the entire nation to pursue the aspiration of prosperity and enter a new era of national development.
Mr. Nguyễn Quang Huân – Chairman of Halcom Vietnam JSC and National Assembly Delegate of the Bình Dương delegation – pointed out that the lower-middle-income level is defined as a GDP per capita of below USD 5,000, while the upper-middle-income level is above USD 5,000. A high-income economy is typically defined at a level of USD 13,000–15,000 per capita.
National Assembly Delegate and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Halcom Vietnam JSC Nguyễn Quang Huân shared his views
“Currently, many countries that fall into the middle-income trap are unable to surpass the income level of USD 7,000 to 10,000 per capita. Some countries have remained trapped at this level for decades,” Mr. Huân said.
Analyzing the four basic types of “traps” that countries may encounter, Mr. Huân said they include the investment capital trap, labor trap, science and technology trap, and economic restructuring trap. A country that continues to develop in a conventional manner without proper planning, calculation, and proactive transformation is highly likely to fall into these “traps.”
According to Mr. Huân, to overcome these “traps”, the first step is to “break the traps” and turn them into drivers of development. For example, to break the science and technology trap, it is necessary to invest in science and technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital technologies.
Regarding the economic restructuring trap, Mr. Huân said that Vietnam is currently heavily dependent on FDI and exports, while domestic consumption has not yet been strongly promoted or fully leveraged to maximize the country’s internal resources.
According to the General Statistics Office, at the end of 2023, Vietnam’s GDP grew by 5.05% compared with the previous year, reaching more than VND 10.22 quadrillion at current prices, equivalent to approximately USD 430 billion.
Mr. Huân assessed that if Vietnam’s economic growth maintains a steady rate of 7% per year, by 2045 the country’s economic size could reach USD 2 trillion, with a per capita income of around USD 20,000. At that point, Vietnam would rank among the world’s top 20 largest economies.
“However, no one can guarantee that Vietnam will always be able to maintain GDP growth at the current rate of 7%. Institutions are currently the bottleneck of all bottlenecks. We have recognized this issue and are making efforts to ‘remove’ these barriers in order to achieve development goals in the new era. Streamlining the organizational structure is the first step for Vietnam to address institutional bottlenecks, followed by enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of the political system after the restructuring process,” Mr. Nguyễn Quang Huân said.
National Assembly Delegate Nguyễn Thị Hà (Bắc Ninh delegation) pointed out that Vietnam is entering a 10-year countdown to its golden period for transitioning from an aging population to an aged population, similar to many European countries today, by 2036.
In order to support the development of high-quality human resources, promote the knowledge-based economy, and effectively leverage the advantages of the golden population period to overcome the middle-income trap faced by many developing countries, Ms. Ha said that it is necessary to study and supplement specific regulations to prioritize support for new groups of workers, such as technology workers and those engaged in the digital economy and digital transformation.
National Assembly Member Nguyễn Thị Hà
Encouraging businesses to invest in workforce training and skills improvement, strengthening professional training institutions, promoting large enterprises to place training orders, and encouraging their participation from the stage of developing training programs and objectives.
“Only by doing so can we fully leverage the advantage of abundant human resources, transform the younger generation into a truly golden workforce, and create breakthroughs in policy development while building an efficient labor market,” Ms. Ha stated.
Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, President of the National Economics University, pointed out that Vietnam is facing major trends shaping the future, which present both opportunities and challenges. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, together with the rapid development of digital technologies and artificial intelligence, offers the potential to enhance competitiveness, strengthen economic sustainability, and improve the quality of products, services, and production processes.
However, these developments also come with major challenges, including rising unemployment, pressure on infrastructure, information security risks, and the potential threat of falling behind if Vietnam fails to adapt quickly.
Dr. Pham Hong Chuong – President of the National Economics University
The Party and the Government of Vietnam have set the goal of transforming the country into a developing nation with upper-middle income status by 2030 and a developed high-income country by 2045. To achieve this objective, the economy will need to maintain an average annual growth rate of 7% over the next 20 years.
In addition, Mr. Chuong expressed concerns about global and domestic factors that are creating additional pressure. Vietnam is entering a period of rapid population aging, while wages are gradually increasing. The slowdown in global trade and increasingly stringent environmental and social requirements are posing significant challenges for businesses.
At the same time, issues such as environmental degradation, climate change, and the long-term impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, along with political instability and conflicts in many regions, also pose significant challenges on Vietnam’s path toward achieving its development goals.
National Assembly Deputy Tran Hoang Ngan, a member of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, said: “Countries with low incomes often face the risk of falling into the middle-income trap, as the middle-income period usually tends to be prolonged.”
However, Mr. Ngan believes that by the end of 2025, Vietnam will surpass the lower-middle-income threshold and move into the middle-income group, with the goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2045.
“We can absolutely overcome the middle-income trap. The key is to take substantive action. We have identified three strategic breakthroughs: focusing on removing institutional bottlenecks, developing infrastructure, and improving human resources. We have been implementing these measures and need to carry them out better, faster, and more effectively,” Mr. Ngan stated.
National Assembly Member Tran Hoang Ngan
The National Assembly Deputy further noted that Vietnam is entering the digital era and an era of modern industry, which the country must seize as an opportunity to accelerate growth. Science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, green transformation, the digital economy, and the circular economy should be leveraged as new drivers for acceleration. At the same time, he emphasized the need to focus on sustainable development, with domestic resources serving as the core foundation.
Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Vice Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), assessed that Vietnam is facing a significant risk of falling into the middle-income trap.
Explaining this issue, Mr. Viet said that, firstly, public spending on education in general, and higher education in particular, in Vietnam remains too low. This has resulted in the qualifications and employability of Vietnamese students and graduates being assessed as relatively low compared with global standards.
In addition, Vietnam is likely to face the challenge of population aging in the coming years. Therefore, if the country fails to take advantage of the “golden population” period to improve the qualifications and skills of its workforce, overcoming the middle-income trap will become much more difficult.
Secondly, although Vietnam’s economy has maintained stable growth over many years, it still relies on an old growth model based on resources, low-cost labor, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exports. In addition, the country’s institutions have not yet become strong enough despite continuous reform efforts. Domestic enterprises continue to face difficulties competing with foreign companies, and even struggle to compete in their own “home market.”
According to Mr. Viet, ultimately, labor productivity must come from the business efficiency of enterprises and depends on their ability to invest in and apply science and technology.
“For businesses to truly develop, there must be a complete market mechanism, along with solutions to remove institutional ‘bottlenecks’ so that enterprises can genuinely grow stronger, seize development opportunities, and overcome challenges,” Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet stated.
Source: Nguoi Dua Tin Online Newspaper